Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 36

May 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
5 - 1
Cagliari

Bennacer (35'), Pulisic (59', 86'), Reijnders (74'), Leao (83')
Bennacer (28'), Gabbia (33')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nandez (63')
Mina (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Cagliari, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 3-3 Genoa
Sunday, May 5 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cagliari

All competitions

Last Game: Cagliari 1-1 Lecce
Sunday, May 5 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Cagliari

Although Milan are clearly running out of steam as the season nears its end and are set to make several changes, Cagliari do not travel well and have a horrendous record in this fixture. Therefore, the hosts should win their first match for over a month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Cagliari
61.01% ( -0.09)	20.29% ( 0.04)	18.69% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 58.62% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.49% (

-0.11)

37.5% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.26% (

-0.11)

59.73% (

0.11)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.09% (

-0.06)

11.9% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.77% (

-0.12)

37.23% (

0.12)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.53% (

-0.02)

33.46% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.9% (

-0.02)

70.09% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 61.01%

Cagliari 18.69%

Draw 20.29%

AC Milan	Draw	Cagliari
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.18% Total : 61.01%	1-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0) Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.29%	1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 18.69%