UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

May 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 4
Olympiacos

(Olympiacos win 6-2 on aggregate)

Watkins (45+1'), Diaby (52')
Diaby (83')

FT(HT: 1-2)

El Kaabi (16', 29', 56' pen.), Hezze (67')
Fortounis (83')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-2 Chelsea
Saturday, April 27 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Olympiacos

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Olympiacos 4-1 Lamia
Sunday, April 28 at 3pm in Greek Superleague

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Olympiacos had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.25%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Olympiacos win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Olympiacos
39.23% ( 0.04)	23.97% ( -0)	36.81% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 61.57% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.27% (

0.02)

40.73% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.89% (

0.02)

63.11% (

-0.02)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.07% (

0.03)

20.93% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.33% (

0.05)

53.67% (

-0.05)

Olympiacos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.87% (

-0.01)

22.13% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.49% (

-0.01)

55.51% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 39.23%

Olympiacos 36.81%

Draw 23.96%

Aston Villa	Draw	Olympiacos
2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.25% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.67% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.95% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 39.23%	1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.96%	1-2 @ 8.24% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.14% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.24% 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.56% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.22% 0-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.5% Total : 36.81%