Coppa Italia | Round of 16

Jan 3, 2024 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 1
Sassuolo

De Ketelaere (24', 63'), Miranchuk (71')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Boloca (90+5')
Konradsen Ceide (54')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Atalanta BC and Sassuolo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Atalanta 1-0 Lecce
Saturday, December 30 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sassuolo

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo
Saturday, December 30 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 2-0 Sassuolo

Although Sassuolo's away record is fairly respectable, they now face an Atalanta side that has won six from nine on home soil in Serie A. Despite rotating their resources, the hosts should have enough nous to capitalise on their visitors' defensive deficiencies and make it through to the Coppa Italia's last eight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.24%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 18.61%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 1-0 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Sassuolo
61.24% ( -1.18)	20.15% ( 0.49)	18.61% ( 0.68)

Both teams to score 58.96% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.01% (

-1.21)

36.98% (

1.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.83% (

-1.32)

59.17% (

1.32)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.31% (

-0.68)

11.68% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.23% (

-1.47)

36.76% (

1.46)

Sassuolo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.76% (

-0.01)

33.24% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.15% (

-0.01)

69.85% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 61.24%

Sassuolo 18.61%

Draw 20.15%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Sassuolo
2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 7.06% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 3.79% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.33% Total : 61.24%	1-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.15%	1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.16) 0-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.07% Total : 18.61%