La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 33

Apr 27, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
3 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

De Paul (15'), Correa (52'), Simon (80' og.)
De Paul (5'), Hermoso (90+3'), Griezmann (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Williams (45')
Sancet (59'), Paredes (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Alaves 2-0 Atletico
Sunday, April 21 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Granada
Friday, April 19 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic really have to avoid defeat here if they are to stay in the top-four race, but it will be difficult considering Atletico's excellent home record this season. We were close to backing a narrow success for Simeone's side but have ultimately settled on a 1-1 draw, which would not be a bad result for either side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
43.85% ( -0.03)	25.66% ( -0)	30.49% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 53.76% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.93% (

0.04)

50.07% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.95% (

0.03)

72.04% (

-0.03)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.24% (

22.76% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.56% (

56.44% (

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.6% (

0.04)

30.4% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.4% (

0.05)

66.6% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 43.85%

Athletic Bilbao 30.49%

Draw 25.66%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.74% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 43.85%	1-1 @ 12.19% 0-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.66%	0-1 @ 8.24% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 30.49%