La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 31

Apr 13, 2024 at 1pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
3 - 1
Girona

Griezmann (34' pen., 50'), Correa (45+6')
Niguez (25'), Simeone (26'), Correa (35'), Llorente (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Dovbyk (4')
Herrera (32'), Couto (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Girona, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, April 10 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Girona

All competitions

Last Game: Girona 3-2 Betis
Sunday, March 31 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Girona

This is a really difficult match to call, as Girona will fancy their chances of taking advantage of Atletico's energy-sapping contest against Dortmund. Girona's recent away form cannot be ignored, though, and we are backing Simeone's side to edge what should be a very interesting fixture in the Spanish capital. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Girona had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Girona
50.36% ( -0.04)	23.12% ( 0.01)	26.53% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 59.51% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.75% (

-0.02)

41.25% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.36% (

-0.03)

63.64% (

0.03)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.47% (

-0.02)

16.53% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.72% (

-0.04)

46.28% (

0.05)

Girona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.29% (

0.01)

28.71% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.47% (

0.01)

64.53% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 50.36%

Girona 26.53%

Draw 23.11%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Girona
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.69% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 3.36% Total : 50.36%	1-1 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.11%	1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.49% 0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0) Other @ 3.46% Total : 26.53%