In terms of form, this could be the biggest mismatch in European football this weekend, but that does not paint the full picture. Union Berlin are a much better team than they have shown so far this season, and their confidence will have been boosted by drawing away to Serie A champions Napoli in midweek.
However, Leverkusen are a serious attacking force at present and have more strings to their bow in terms of breaking their opponents down. While we can envisage the visitors making Leverkusen work hard for their victory, especially having travelled back from Azerbaijan less than 72 hours prior to this fixture, they should have enough to get over the line in the end and remain at the top of the table.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 13.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (3.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.28) 
0.09) 
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