Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 25

Mar 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
8 - 1
Mainz

Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Lazio
Tuesday, March 5 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, March 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Bayern Munich 4-1 Mainz 05

Bayern will enter Saturday's contest as firm favourites, but they are aware that there is no room for error from now until the end of the season if they are to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive. Mainz cannot be written off entirely as they are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table and have marginally improved under Henriksen, but Bayern should ultimately have the firepower to outscore their opponents en route to a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Mainz 05
82.44% ( 0.07)	11.53% ( -0.04)	6.03% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 47.9% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.6% (

0.11)

29.4% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.53% (

0.13)

50.47% (

-0.13)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.74% (

0.03)

5.26% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

79.25% (

0.1)

20.75% (

-0.09)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.56% (

49.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.74% (

84.26% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 82.43%

Mainz 05 6.03%

Draw 11.53%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Mainz 05
2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.75% 6-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 7-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 82.43%	1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.74% Total : 11.53%	1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 6.03%