Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 32

May 4, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
5 - 1
Augsburg

Moukoko (4', 29'), Malen (20'), Reus (34'), Nmecha (64')

FT(HT: 4-1)

Vargas (32')
Bauer (10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 PSG
Wednesday, May 1 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Augsburg

All competitions

Last Game: Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Augsburg

Now that Dortmund are guaranteed a Champions League spot for next season, Augsburg will hope that the hosts will take their foot off the gas on the domestic front as they endeavour to boost their own European hopes heading down the home straight. However, even if Terzic does decide to rotate his side, we believe that the BVB boss will still field a strong enough team to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.75%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Augsburg
55.75% ( -1.29)	19.84% ( 0.07)	24.41% ( 1.22)

Both teams to score 69.46% (

1.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.67% (

1.06)

27.33% (

-1.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.09% (

1.32)

47.91% (

-1.33)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.88% (

0.01)

10.12% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.69% (

0.03)

33.31% (

-0.04)

Augsburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.29% (

1.46)

22.71% (

-1.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.63% (

2.13)

56.37% (

-2.13)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 55.75%

Augsburg 24.41%

Draw 19.84%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Augsburg
2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.39) 1-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.3) 4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.17) 5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.84% Total : 55.75%	1-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.61% Total : 19.84%	1-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.08) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.11) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.12% Total : 24.41%