There will be no extra time or penalties in the event of a draw over two legs, and Bari will ultimately be promoted should that happen, due to finishing higher in the Serie B standings. Therefore, the onus is on Cagliari to maximise home advantage on Thursday, when they can establish a lead to protect during the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bari had a probability of 22.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result
Cagliari	Draw	Bari
51.52%	26.45%	22.03%

Both teams to score 44.6%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.41%

58.59%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.85%

79.15%

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.12%

22.88%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.37%

56.63%

Bari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.83%

42.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.42%

78.58%

Score Analysis

Cagliari 51.51%

Bari 22.03%

Draw 26.44%

Cagliari	Draw	Bari
1-0 @ 14.23% 2-0 @ 10.49% 2-1 @ 9.06% 3-0 @ 5.16% 3-1 @ 4.46% 3-2 @ 1.92% 4-0 @ 1.9% 4-1 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.65% Total : 51.51%	1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 9.65% 2-2 @ 3.91% Other @ 0.6% Total : 26.44%	0-1 @ 8.33% 1-2 @ 5.31% 0-2 @ 3.6% 1-3 @ 1.53% 2-3 @ 1.13% 0-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.11% Total : 22.03%