Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 5pm UK

A. Le Coq Arena

Estonia
0 - 2
Azerbaijan

Pikk (18'), Kait (68'), Vetkal (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Bayramov (9'), Seydayev (45+4' pen.)
Mahmudov (22'), Mammadov (40'), Madatov (45+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Estonia and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 5-0 Estonia
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	5	12	13
2	Austria	5	8	13
3	Sweden	5	3	6
4	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1
5	Estonia	5	-14	1

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Azerbaijan 2-1 Jordan
Tuesday, September 12 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	5	12	13
2	Austria	5	8	13
3	Sweden	5	3	6
4	Azerbaijan	4	-9	1
5	Estonia	5	-14	1

We said: Estonia 1-2 Azerbaijan

A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched nations could be on the cards on Friday, but considering Estonia's recent troubles in defence and Azerbaijan's solid performances against Belgium and Jordan last time out, we believe that the visitors will do enough to claim a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 45.6%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Azerbaijan
28.36% ( 0.3)	26.04% ( -0.15)	45.6% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 51.35% (

0.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.36% (

0.77)

52.64% (

-0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.71% (

0.66)

74.29% (

-0.66)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.72% (

0.65)

33.28% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.1% (

0.7)

69.9% (

-0.7)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.97% (

0.26)

23.03% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.15% (

0.38)

56.85% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

Estonia 28.36%

Azerbaijan 45.59%

Draw 26.04%

Estonia	Draw	Azerbaijan
1-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.44% Total : 28.36%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.04%	0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.26% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 1.48% Other @ 2.93% Total : 45.59%