UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Playoffs | 1st Leg

Aug 23, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Easter Road Stadium

Hibernian
0 - 5
Aston Villa

(Aston Villa win 8-0 on aggregate)

Boyle (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Watkins (17', 33', 48'), Bailey (42'), Luiz (74' pen.)
Digne (21')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Europa Conference League clash between Hibernian and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hibernian

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Hibernian 2-1 Raith Rovers
Sunday, August 20 at 2pm in Scottish League Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Aston Villa

All competitions

Last Game: Aston Villa 4-0 Everton
Sunday, August 20 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Hibernian 1-2 Aston Villa

The huge gulf in resources between the two clubs leaves Aston Villa clear favourites to progress after next week's second leg, but Hibs certainly will not make life easy for the Premier League side. On home soil, the Hibees have won both of their qualifying fixtures so far; however, stepping up in class will see them beaten by a team with a wealth of European experience - most notably in the dugout. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Hibernian had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.78%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Hibernian win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Hibernian	Draw	Aston Villa
36.25% ( 0.11)	24.4% ( 0.03)	39.34% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 59.87% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.1% (

-0.13)

42.9% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.7% (

-0.13)

65.3% (

0.13)

Hibernian Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.59% (

-0)

23.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.6% (

-0)

57.4% (

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.17% (

-0.13)

21.83% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.95% (

-0.19)

55.05% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Hibernian 36.26%

Aston Villa 39.34%

Draw 24.4%

Hibernian	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 36.26%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.4%	1-2 @ 8.59% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.78% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.36% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.52% Total : 39.34%