Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 12

Nov 26, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

PreZero Arena

Hoffenheim
1 - 1
Mainz

Skov (48')
Kramaric (25'), Brooks (30'), Kabak (32'), Promel (44')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Richter (39')
Fernandes (25'), Caci (29'), Richter (68'), Mwene (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Hoffenheim and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hoffenheim

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Augsburg 1-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, November 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 Mainz
Saturday, November 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Hoffenheim 2-1 Mainz 05

Although Hoffenheim have lost four of their five home games in the Bundesliga this season, we expect Matarazzo's side to be relishing the prospect of facing depleted Mainz on Sunday. The visitors have become tougher to beat in recent weeks, but their lack of a permanent manager and lack of numbers - particularly in defensive areas - means we can se them falling to a narrow defeat this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.76%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Hoffenheim	Draw	Mainz 05
35.13% ( 0.27)	24.23% ( 0.73)	40.64% ( -1)

Both teams to score 60.34% (

-2.67)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.78% (

-3.5)

42.22% (

3.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.38% (

-3.6)

64.62% (

3.6)

Hoffenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.29% (

-1.48)

23.71% (

1.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.17% (

-2.17)

57.83% (

2.17)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.09% (

-1.93)

20.91% (

1.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.37% (

-3.11)

53.63% (

3.11)

Score Analysis

Hoffenheim 35.13%

Mainz 05 40.64%

Draw 24.22%

Hoffenheim	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.79) 2-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.28) 3-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.01% Total : 35.13%	1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.62) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.3) 0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.74) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.26) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.22%	1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.74) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 4.56% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.37) 0-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.23) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.23) 0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.77% Total : 40.64%