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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 45.85%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 28.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Union Berlin |
45.85% ( -0.41) | 25.37% ( 0.07) | 28.78% ( 0.34) |
Both teams to score 53.74% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.34% ( -0.11) | 49.66% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.33% ( -0.1) | 71.67% ( 0.1) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.34% ( -0.23) | 21.66% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.21% ( -0.36) | 54.79% ( 0.36) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.59% ( 0.19) | 31.41% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.22% ( 0.22) | 67.78% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Union Berlin |
1-0 @ 10.4% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 45.85% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.85% Total : 28.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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