Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 12

Nov 12, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
0 - 0
Roma

Sarri (33'), Immobile (38'), Alberto (67'), Patric (74')

Mancini (18'), N'Dicka (31'), Lukaku (37'), Azmoun (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Lazio and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Feyenoord
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Slavia Prague 2-0 Roma
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Even if this edition of the derby is level late on, all is not over until the final whistle sounds: Roma have scored the most goals (nine) during the final 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season; Lazio have found the net just twice during the same time period. They may not employ Maurizio Sarri's intricate passing patterns, but Jose Mourinho's men never know when they are beaten - and one goal could be enough to seal an overdue success against their capital-city rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 43.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Roma had a probability of 28.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Roma
43.52% ( -0.01)	28.29% ( 0.07)	28.18% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 44.84% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.08% (

-0.24)

60.92% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.06% (

-0.18)

80.93% (

0.18)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.19% (

-0.12)

27.81% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.6% (

-0.16)

63.4% (

0.16)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.11% (

-0.18)

37.88% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.34% (

-0.17)

74.65% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Lazio 43.52%

Roma 28.17%

Draw 28.28%

Lazio	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.68% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.73% Total : 43.52%	1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.28%	0-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.96% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.66% Total : 28.17%