Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 18

Feb 7, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
1 - 1
Union Berlin

Burkardt (45+8')
Ajorque (15'), Kohr (89')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gosens (45+13')
Vogt (53'), Leite (79'), Haberer (84'), Doekhi (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Werder Bremen
Saturday, February 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Union Berlin

All competitions

Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin
Sunday, February 4 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 0-1 Union Berlin

Both teams average below one goal per game, so it is set to be a close-fought encounter between two sides low on confidence. The pressure is on Mainz to finally produce in front of their own fans, while Union are showing signs of improvement and boast more depth in the final third. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 22.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Union Berlin
52.71% ( 0.03)	25.17% ( -0.01)	22.11% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 48.16% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.04% (

-0.01)

53.95% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.6% (

-0.01)

75.4% (

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.53% (

0.01)

20.46% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.06% (

0.02)

52.93% (

-0.02)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.55% (

-0.03)

39.44% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.86% (

-0.03)

76.13% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 52.7%

Union Berlin 22.11%

Draw 25.17%

Mainz 05	Draw	Union Berlin
1-0 @ 12.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.15% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.57% Total : 52.7%	1-1 @ 11.91% 0-0 @ 8.07% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.17%	0-1 @ 7.51% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 1.4% Total : 22.11%