Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 18

Jan 14, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade Saint-Symphorien

Metz
0 - 1
Toulouse

Jean Jacques (18'), Boloni (19'), Sabaly (20'), N'Doram (37')
Herelle (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sierro (12' pen.)
Dallinga (40'), Kamanzi (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Metz

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Metz 1-1 Clermont (1-3 pen.)
Friday, January 5 at 7.45pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Chambery 0-3 Toulouse
Sunday, January 7 at 4.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

Metz have struggled massively in recent matches, but the return of goalscorer Chakvetadze could give them the boost required to earn a rare three points. Toulouse are without a number of their key players due to injuries and AFCON, meaning we cannot imagine Les Violets getting a result on their travels in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.

Result
Metz	Draw	Toulouse
38.49% ( 0.26)	26.76% ( 0.05)	34.75% ( -0.3)

Both teams to score 51.57% (

-0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.51% (

-0.21)

53.49% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.99% (

-0.18)

75.01% (

0.18)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.93% (

0.05)

27.07% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.56% (

0.06)

62.44% (

-0.06)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.71% (

-0.29)

29.29% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.75% (

-0.36)

65.25% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Metz 38.48%

Toulouse 34.75%

Draw 26.76%

Metz	Draw	Toulouse
1-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.95% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 38.48%	1-1 @ 12.72% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.76%	0-1 @ 9.73% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.51% Total : 34.75%