Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 13

Nov 26, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier
1 - 3
Brest

Savanier (51' pen.)
Savanier (24'), Adams (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Esteve (20' og.), Pereira Lage (64'), Doumbia (90+3')
Lees-Melou (30'), Del Castillo (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 0-0 Nice
Friday, November 10 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Monaco 2-0 Brest
Sunday, November 5 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Montpellier HSC 2-0 Brest

Both teams will point to difficult recent fixtures as to why their formbooks are misleading going into this match, but despite Brest sitting higher in the table and having generally been the better side this season, we are backing the home side to come away with the points. Montpellier have only been beaten once at home all season and have not conceded in any of their last three home games, whereas Brest have failed to score in any of their last three away games. It is a more confident Brest side than the one that lost last season's meetings 10-0 on aggregate, but they have also only won one of their last 15 meetings with Montpellier, and we are backing Der Zakarian to get one over on his former club. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Brest had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
Montpellier HSC	Draw	Brest
44.02% ( -0.07)	25.76% ( 0.02)	30.21% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 53.3% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.39% (

-0.05)

50.61% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.48% (

-0.04)

72.52% (

0.05)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.1% (

-0.05)

22.91% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.34% (

-0.08)

56.66% (

0.08)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.14% (

0.01)

30.87% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.85% (

0.01)

67.15% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Montpellier HSC 44.02%

Brest 30.21%

Draw 25.76%

Montpellier HSC	Draw	Brest
1-0 @ 10.41% 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.68% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 44.02%	1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.76%	0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0) Other @ 3.01% Total : 30.21%