Home > Football > Bundesliga
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result | ||
RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
60.28% ( 0.05) | 20.02% ( 0.01) | 19.7% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 61.55% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.46% ( -0.13) | 34.53% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.53% ( -0.15) | 56.46% ( 0.14) |
RB Leipzig Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.8% ( -0.03) | 11.19% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.29% ( -0.06) | 35.71% ( 0.05) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.31% ( -0.13) | 30.68% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.06% ( -0.16) | 66.94% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
RB Leipzig | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.89% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.95% Total : 60.28% | 1-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.02% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.4% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 19.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |