Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 11

Nov 12, 2023 at 6.30pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
3 - 1
Freiburg

Simons (6'), Openda (79' pen.), Baumgartner (80')
Haidara (62'), Openda (63')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Rohl (45+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Red Star 1-2 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 5-0 Backa Topola
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: RB Leipzig 2-0 Freiburg

After suffering two disappointing defeats on the road, Leipzig will have taken plenty of confidence from their hard-earned victory away from home in the Champions League in midweek, and they will be pleased to be back at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday. Freiburg have had two fewer days' rest than their forthcoming opponents after winning in the Europa League on Thursday, and although we expect them to remain competitive as is usually the case, we can envisage Leipzig securing a relatively routine win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 19.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Freiburg
60.01% ( 0.2)	20.47% ( 0.02)	19.52% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 59.53% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.99% (

-0.42)

37.01% (

0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.8% (

-0.46)

59.19% (

0.45)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.97% (

-0.07)

12.02% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.5% (

-0.16)

37.49% (

0.15)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.67% (

-0.47)

32.33% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.17% (

-0.53)

68.83% (

0.53)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 60.01%

Freiburg 19.52%

Draw 20.47%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Freiburg
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.21% Total : 60.01%	1-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.47%	1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.52%