La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 21

Jan 21, 2024 at 3.15pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
3 - 2
Almeria

Bellingham (57' pen.), Junior (67'), Carvajal (90+9')
Camavinga (90+8'), Carvajal (90+10'), Bellingham (90+11')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Ramazani (1'), Gonzalez (43')
Ramazani (52'), Garitano (53'), Lopy (64'), Pozo (74'), Gonzalez (84'), Suarez Charris (90+11')
Garitano (90+7')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Atletico 4-2 Real Madrid
Thursday, January 18 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Almeria

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Almeria 0-0 Girona
Sunday, January 14 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Real Madrid 2-0 Almeria

There has certainly been an improvement in Almeria's recent performances, and the return of Suarez in an attacking area will boost their survival hopes. Real Madrid have had a tiring start to 2024, and we are not expecting Ancelotti's side to be at their best here, but the hosts should have enough to get the job done. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 82.52%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 6.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 3-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.52%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (2.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Almeria
82.52% ( 0.79)	10.75% ( -0.44)	6.73% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 57.35% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.77% (

0.96)

21.22% (

-0.97)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

60.18% (

1.33)

39.82% (

-1.34)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.23% (

0.28)

3.77% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

83.87% (

0.9)

16.12% (

-0.91)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.6% (

-0.02)

40.4% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.98% (

-0.01)

77.01% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 82.52%

Almeria 6.73%

Draw 10.75%

Real Madrid	Draw	Almeria
3-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.21) 4-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 4.99% ( -0.25) 5-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.18) 5-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05) 6-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.16) 6-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.14) 5-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.07) 7-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.1) 7-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.09) 6-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.06) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.75% Total : 82.52%	1-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 10.75%	1-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 1.38% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.29% Total : 6.73%