St Pauli

5 - 1

Holstein Kiel

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.