Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 7

Oct 1, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Toulouse
3 - 0
Metz

Schmidt (31'), Dallinga (43'), Magri (82')
Nicolaisen (13'), Suazo (63'), Sierro (75')

FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lens 2-1 Toulouse
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Metz

All competitions

Last Game: Metz 0-1 Strasbourg
Sunday, September 24 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Draws have been commonplace in this fixture over the past several years, and while the two sides have not squared off since pre-COVID times, we can envisage a similar pattern continuing here. Toulouse have established themselves as the stalemate specialists at home, but Metz have developed an affinity for dogged defensive showings on the road, and both sides should leave with another point in the bag. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 38.73%. A win for Metz had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Metz
38.73% ( -0.42)	26.34% ( 0.15)	34.93% ( 0.28)

Both teams to score 52.95% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.25% (

-0.58)

51.75% (

0.58)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.48% (

-0.5)

73.52% (

0.5)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.88% (

-0.5)

26.12% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.81% (

-0.67)

61.19% (

0.67)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.67% (

-0.11)

28.33% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.94% (

-0.14)

64.06% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 38.73%

Metz 34.93%

Draw 26.34%

Toulouse	Draw	Metz
1-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.33% Total : 38.73%	1-1 @ 12.52% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.34%	0-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.93%