Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 30

Apr 20, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Forsterei

Union Berlin
1 - 5
Bayern

Vertessen (90')
Bjelica (45+1')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Goretzka (29'), Kane (45+1'), Muller (53', 66'), Tel (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Last Game: Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin
Friday, April 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, April 17 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Union Berlin 1-3 Bayern Munich

While the pressure is on Union Berlin to pick up precious points in a bid to avoid the drop, Bayern are merely playing for pride, but Tuchel's men remain firm favourites to come out on top this weekend. Union Berlin's goal drought will be a concern for Bjelica, but even if they are to breach Bayern's backline, we believe that the visitors will find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming maximum points and consolidating second spot for at least another week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 20.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Bayern Munich
20.66% ( 0.21)	20.83% ( 0.04)	58.51% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 60.17% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.94% (

0.11)

37.06% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.75% (

0.11)

59.25% (

-0.11)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.74% (

0.26)

31.26% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.38% (

0.3)

67.62% (

-0.3)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.54% (

-0.04)

12.46% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.58% (

-0.08)

38.41% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 20.66%

Bayern Munich 58.51%

Draw 20.83%

Union Berlin	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.66%	1-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.83%	1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.06% Total : 58.51%