Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 38

May 28, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 1
Brighton

Luiz (8'), Watkins (26')
Cash (22'), Ramsey (24'), Mings (37'), McGinn (67')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Undav (38')
Undav (12'), Buonanotte (63'), Caicedo (73'), Gross (88')

The Match

Match Report

For the first time in 13 years, Aston Villa will compete in Europe next season after ending the Premier League campaign with a 2-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Last Game: Liverpool 1-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, May 20 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions

Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Man City
Wednesday, May 24 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 37.15% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
37.15% ( 0.16)	23.79% ( 0.03)	39.06% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 62.25% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.15% (

-0.12)

39.84% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.8% (

-0.13)

62.2% (

0.13)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.44% (

0.03)

21.56% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.36% (

0.05)

54.64% (

-0.05)

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.37% (

-0.14)

20.63% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.8% (

-0.23)

53.2% (

0.23)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 37.15%

Brighton & Hove Albion 39.06%

Draw 23.79%

Aston Villa	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.28% 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 37.15%	1-1 @ 10.77% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.79%	1-2 @ 8.5% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.91% Total : 39.06%