Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 36

May 20, 2023 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 1
Hellas Verona

Zappacosta (22'), Pasalic (53'), Hojlund (62')
Koopmeiners (24')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lazovic (11')
Hien (28'), Depaoli (36'), Faraoni (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Hellas Verona, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Salernitana 1-0 Atalanta
Saturday, May 13 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Hellas Verona

All competitions

Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-1 Torino
Sunday, May 14 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 1-0 Hellas Verona

Neither side is full of confidence in the final third, and Atalanta's home record leaves a lot to be desired, so it could be just a single goal which separates the sides in Bergamo. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 16.28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Hellas Verona
61.7% ( 0.68)	22.02% ( 0.06)	16.28% ( -0.75)

Both teams to score 47.91% (

-1.73)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.72% (

-1.51)

49.28% (

1.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.66% (

-1.38)

71.34% (

1.37)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.54% (

-0.29)

15.46% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.67% (

-0.54)

44.33% (

0.53)

Hellas Verona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.67% (

-1.85)

43.33% (

1.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.44% (

-1.59)

79.56% (

1.58)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 61.69%

Hellas Verona 16.28%

Draw 22.02%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Hellas Verona
1-0 @ 12.5% ( 0.64) 2-0 @ 11.67% ( 0.49) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.14% Total : 61.69%	1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.25) Other @ 0.78% Total : 22.02%	0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.6% Total : 16.28%