Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Austria
2 - 0
Sweden

Baumgartner (81', 89')
Posch (12')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Austria and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austria

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Belgium 1-1 Austria
Saturday, June 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	4	7
2	Belgium	2	3	4
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	2	-1	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Sweden

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 4-1 New Zealand
Friday, June 16 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	4	7
2	Belgium	2	3	4
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	2	-1	1
5	Azerbaijan	3	-8	1

Both of these teams have been scoring and conceding plenty of goals lately, so we can envisage an entertaining encounter in Vienna. Sweden will know that a defeat could potentially be fatal in terms of their hopes of qualifying for next summer's European Championship, but we believe they have enough about them to avoid defeat, with a share of the spoils potentially suiting both managers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 55.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 21.39%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 2-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.

Result
Austria	Draw	Sweden
55.19% ( 11.26)	23.42% ( 1.71)	21.39% ( -12.97)

Both teams to score 52.47% (

-17.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.24% (

-17.92)

47.76% (

17.92)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.05% (

-18.95)

69.95% (

18.96)

Austria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.84% (

-2.66)

17.16% (

2.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.59% (

-4.91)

47.41% (

4.92)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.34% (

-18.27)

36.65% (

18.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.56% (

-23.93)

73.44% (

23.93)

Score Analysis

Austria 55.18%

Sweden 21.39%

Draw 23.41%

Austria	Draw	Sweden
1-0 @ 11.08% ( 5.93) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 1.39) 2-0 @ 9.77% ( 4.8) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( 0.34) 3-0 @ 5.74% ( 2.54) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -1.7) 4-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.99) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.94) Other @ 3.79% Total : 55.18%	1-1 @ 11.12% ( 2.4) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( 3.63) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -2.21) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -1.62) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.41%	0-1 @ 6.31% ( 1.8) 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -1.8) 0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.66) 1-3 @ 1.87% ( -2.3) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( -2.38) 0-3 @ 1.06% ( -1.1) Other @ 1.75% Total : 21.39%