Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22

Feb 18, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Francis-Le Ble

Brest
1 - 0
Marseille

Lees-Melou (88')
Lala (12'), Chardonnet (35'), Le Cardinal (90+6')
Mounie (60')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Balerdi (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Clermont 1-1 Brest
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Shakhtar 2-2 Marseille
Thursday, February 15 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

With Marseille only having to travel as far as Germany rather than Ukraine in midweek, Les Olympiens' Europa League fatigue will be nowhere near as restrictive as it could have been, but their away form in Ligue 1 has been nothing short of shocking. Roy's men may have lost their winning touch in recent weeks and will rue the absence of first-choice stopper Bizot, but Les Pirates have been virtually impenetrable on their own patch this term and should be good enough for a point against Gattuso's charges, who may be lucky to escape with a draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 32.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brest in this match.

Result
Brest	Draw	Marseille
40.18% ( -0.61)	27.59% ( -0.08)	32.23% ( 0.69)

Both teams to score 48.5% (

0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.86% (

0.46)

57.14% (

-0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.99% (

0.36)

78% (

-0.36)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.16% (

-0.12)

27.84% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.56% (

-0.16)

63.44% (

0.16)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.21% (

0.72)

32.79% (

-0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.64% (

0.8)

69.35% (

-0.8)

Score Analysis

Brest 40.17%

Marseille 32.23%

Draw 27.58%

Brest	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 11.67% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.86% Total : 40.17%	1-1 @ 13.01% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.58%	0-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.6% Total : 32.23%