Serie B | 1st Leg

May 30, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Stadio Sant'Elia

Cagliari
3 - 2
Parma

(Cagliari win 3-2 on aggregate)

Luvumbo (68', 89'), Lapadula (85' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-2)

Benedyczak (10'), Sohm (26')
Estevez (29'), Vazquez (62'), Chichizola (65'), Mihaila (72'), Man (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Serie B clash between Cagliari and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cagliari

All competitions

Last Game: Cagliari 2-1 Venezia
Saturday, May 27 at 7.30pm in Serie B

Goals
for

Top scorers

Parma

All competitions

Last Game: Parma 2-1 Venezia
Friday, May 19 at 7.30pm in Serie B

Goals
for

Top scorers

The two teams played out a 1-1 draw when they locked horns at the home of Cagliari earlier this season, and we can see the same result in this match. The league table shows that there is hardly anything to choose between them, and we are expecting this semi-final to be incredibly tight across the two legs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Parma had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.

Result
Cagliari	Draw	Parma
46.93% ( 0.44)	26.52% ( -0.01)	26.55% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 48.65% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.48% (

-0.24)

55.52% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.3% (

-0.2)

76.7% (

0.2)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.35% (

0.1)

23.65% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.25% (

0.15)

57.75% (

-0.15)

Parma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.73% (

-0.49)

36.27% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.94% (

-0.5)

73.06% (

0.5)

Score Analysis

Cagliari 46.92%

Parma 26.55%

Draw 26.52%

Cagliari	Draw	Parma
1-0 @ 12.36% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.65% Total : 46.92%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.52%	0-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.89% Total : 26.55%