FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

Goodison Park

Everton
1 - 2
Luton

Harrison (55')
Chermiti (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mykolenko (39' og.), Woodrow (90+6')
Burke (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Everton and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Everton

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Everton 1-0 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, January 17 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Bolton 1-2 Luton
Tuesday, January 16 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Everton 2-1 Luton Town

Although Everton and Luton were forced to battle through replays in the previous round, both sides are well-rested for Saturday's clash and will fancy their chances of coming out on top in an intriguing contest at Goodison Park. Luton have already celebrated success on the blue side of Merseyside this term, but with Premier League survival ambitions placed to one side, we believe that a fired-up Everton side seeking revenge will find a way to book their place in the fifth round without needing another dreaded replay. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 36.87%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 36.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Everton	Draw	Luton Town
36.87% ( -0.06)	26.36% ( -0.15)	36.77% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 53.01% (

0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.27% (

0.64)

51.72% (

-0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.5% (

0.56)

73.49% (

-0.56)

Everton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.84% (

0.27)

27.16% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.44% (

0.35)

62.56% (

-0.35)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.78% (

0.43)

27.22% (

-0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.36% (

0.56)

62.63% (

-0.56)

Score Analysis

Everton 36.87%

Luton Town 36.77%

Draw 26.35%

Everton	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 9.64% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 8.17% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.04% Total : 36.87%	1-1 @ 12.53% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.35%	0-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.02% Total : 36.77%