EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
1 - 0
Luton

Mitchell (83')
Mitchell (48'), Harper (51'), Sinisalo (78'), Carroll (90+6'), Sweeney (90+6')
Mitchell (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mengi (35'), Chong (42')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Exeter City and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Oxford Utd 3-0 Exeter
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Luton 1-1 Wolves
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Exeter City 0-3 Luton Town

Even with a wealth of first-team regulars expected to enjoy a night off, Luton should not have to overcome many obstacles to sink an Exeter crop whose morale is surely at an all-time low. A first clean sheet of the season should be on the menu for the Hatters too, as Edwards's side end the Grecians' EFL Cup adventure with a routine success at St James Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Luton Town
30.45% ( 0.16)	24.45% ( 0.05)	45.1% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 57.8% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.21% (

-0.15)

44.78% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.85% (

-0.15)

67.14% (

0.14)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.23% (

0.03)

27.76% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.65% (

0.04)

63.34% (

-0.04)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.02% (

-0.15)

19.98% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.84% (

-0.24)

52.16% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 30.45%

Luton Town 45.1%

Draw 24.44%

Exeter City	Draw	Luton Town
2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.52% 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.45%	1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.44%	1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.95% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.1%