Homburg have already shown this season that they have the players capable of troubling sides in the top two divisions. As a result, we expect the fourth-tier outfit to put up another strong showing, but we believe that St Pauli's extra quality will be pivotal in the end, which is why we think that they will do enough to squeeze through to the quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for FC 08 Homburg had a probability of 9.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.69%), while for a FC 08 Homburg win it was 2-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
FC 08 Homburg	Draw	St Pauli
9.93% ( 0.01)	14.72% ( 0.03)	75.34% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 54.92% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.31% (

-0.14)

30.69% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.98% (

-0.17)

52.01% (

0.17)

FC 08 Homburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.93% (

-0.08)

41.07% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.38% (

-0.08)

77.61% (

0.07)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.19% (

-0.04)

6.81% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.89% (

-0.11)

25.1% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

FC 08 Homburg 9.93%

St Pauli 75.34%

Draw 14.72%

FC 08 Homburg	Draw	St Pauli
2-1 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-0 @ 2.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) 2-0 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 9.93%	1-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 14.72%	0-2 @ 10.09% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 9.04% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 8.05% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 6.07% ( -0) 1-4 @ 5.41% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 3.26% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 2.9% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 0-6 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 1-6 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.98% Total : 75.34%