Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Italy
5 - 2
N. Macedonia

Darmian (17'), Chiesa (41', 45+3'), Raspadori (81'), El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (72'), Acerbi (89')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Atanasov (52', 74')
Churlinov (79'), Ashkovski (80'), Ristovski (84'), Milevski (84'), Serafimov (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Italy and North Macedonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Friday's Euro 2024 qualifying Group C clash with North Macedonia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: England 3-1 Italy
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	6	16	16
2	Ukraine	7	3	13
3	Italy	6	4	10
4	North Macedonia	6	-7	7
5	Malta	7	-16	0

North Macedonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: N. Macedonia 3-1 Armenia
Tuesday, October 17 at 2pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	6	16	16
2	Ukraine	7	3	13
3	Italy	6	4	10
4	North Macedonia	6	-7	7
5	Malta	7	-16	0

We said: Italy 2-0 North Macedonia

Proving to be one of Italy's bogey teams down the years, North Macedonia have never failed to score against their more esteemed counterparts and should play with the shackles off on Friday, having already been condemned to their fate. However, the Lynxes' luck against the Euro 2020 holders is sure to run out soon, and with the Olimpico crowd behind them, we can only picture the Azzurri coming up trumps, thus giving themselves a crucial injection of confidence ahead of Monday's crunch clash with the Ukrainians. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 70.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 10.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.43%) and 3-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	North Macedonia
70.63% ( 0.36)	18.45% ( -0.42)	10.91% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 44.58% (

1.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.17% (

1.92)

45.83% (

-1.91)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.85% (

1.79)

68.15% (

-1.79)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.28% (

0.65)

11.72% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.15% (

1.38)

36.85% (

-1.38)

North Macedonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.5% (

1.32)

49.5% (

-1.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.69% (

0.91)

84.31% (

-0.91)

Score Analysis

Italy 70.62%

North Macedonia 10.91%

Draw 18.45%

Italy	Draw	North Macedonia
2-0 @ 13.33% ( -0.39) 1-0 @ 12.43% ( -0.7) 3-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.17) 5-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.22% Total : 70.62%	1-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.61% Total : 18.45%	0-1 @ 4.08% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 10.91%