Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg

Apr 23, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
2 - 1
Juventus

(Juventus win 3-2 on aggregate)

Castellanos (12', 48')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Milik (83')
Locatelli (34')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between Lazio and Juventus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Genoa 0-1 Lazio
Friday, April 19 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Juventus

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Cagliari 2-2 Juventus
Friday, April 19 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Lazio 1-1 Juventus (Juventus win 3-1 on aggregate)

Lazio are certainly capable of turning this tie around, but it is a huge ask, and we are finding it difficult to imagine Juventus suffering a comfortable loss in this contest. We are backing a 1-1 draw on the night, which would see the Old Lady advance to the final courtesy of a 3-1 aggregate success. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Juventus
38.31% ( -0.06)	27.81% ( 0)	33.88% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 48.21% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.34% (

57.66% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.58% (

78.42% (

-0.01)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.83% (

-0.04)

29.16% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.9% (

-0.04)

65.1% (

0.04)

Juventus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.06% (

0.04)

31.94% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.61% (

0.04)

68.39% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Lazio 38.3%

Juventus 33.88%

Draw 27.81%

Lazio	Draw	Juventus
1-0 @ 11.47% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 38.3%	1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.81%	0-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.48% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 33.88%