Coppa Italia | Quarter-Finals

Jan 10, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 0
Roma

Zaccagni (51' pen.)
Castellanos (60'), Guendouzi (65'), Pellegrini (90+3'), Pedro (90+5')
Pedro (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Cristante (57'), Mancini (65')
Azmoun (90+10'), Mancini (90+11')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Lazio and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Udinese 1-2 Lazio
Sunday, January 7 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Roma 1-1 Atalanta
Sunday, January 7 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Lazio 1-1 Roma (Lazio to win on penalties)

In a game that could well be relatively cagey and go the distance, Lazio's recent form and results against Roma could give them the edge. However, form often goes out the window in huge derbies like this, and Mourinho will be looking for a big performance to overturn their recent poor run, but they will be the slight underdogs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.04%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Roma had a probability of 28.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 2-1 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Roma
42.04% ( 0.12)	29.02% ( 0.04)	28.93% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 43.32% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.99% (

-0.2)

63.01% (

0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.53% (

-0.14)

82.47% (

0.14)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.36% (

-0.03)

29.64% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.32% (

-0.03)

65.68% (

0.03)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.57% (

-0.25)

38.43% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.82% (

-0.24)

75.18% (

0.23)

Score Analysis

Lazio 42.04%

Roma 28.93%

Draw 29.01%

Lazio	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 13.85% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 1.44% Total : 42.04%	1-1 @ 13.24% 0-0 @ 11.38% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.01%	0-1 @ 10.89% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.33% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.59% Total : 28.93%