Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Lithuania
1 - 3
Serbia

Paulauskas (45')
Cernych (23'), Paulauskas (35')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Mitrovic (21', 32', 43')
Zivkovic (38'), Milinkovic-Savic (84'), Mitrovic (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Lithuania and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Serbia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Serbia 1-2 Hungary
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	4	6	10
2	Serbia	4	3	7
3	Montenegro	4	-1	5
4	Lithuania	4	-4	2
5	Bulgaria	4	-4	2

Serbia should expect to do the double over lowly Lithuania, who simply cannot buy a win and could be bound for bottom place in Group G. The gulf in class between the teams will be apparent, but a dogged rearguard action by the home side may keep the scoreline respectable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
Lithuania	Draw	Serbia
8.87% ( 0.24)	16.87% ( 0.3)	74.26% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 41.96% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.06% (

-0.55)

44.93% (

0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.71% (

-0.53)

67.29% (

0.53)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.89% (

0.18)

53.11% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.28% (

0.12)

86.71% (

-0.12)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.48% (

-0.28)

10.51% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.8% (

-0.64)

34.19% (

0.64)

Score Analysis

Lithuania 8.87%

Serbia 74.24%

Draw 16.87%

Lithuania	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.7% Total : 8.87%	1-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 16.87%	0-2 @ 14.16% 0-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 10.63% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 6.73% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 5.99% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 2.7% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.71% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 74.24%