FA Cup

FA Cup | Fifth Round

Feb 27, 2024 at 8pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
2 - 6
Man City

Clark (45', 52')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Haaland (3', 18', 40', 55', 58'), Kovacic (72')

Manchester City's Erling Haaland emulates George Best feat with five-goal FA Cup haul

Erling Haaland emulates an FA Cup scoring feat of George Best after netting five in Manchester City's 6-2 win over Luton Town in the fifth round.

Feb 27, 22:53

Manchester City's Jack Grealish at the end of the first half after being substituted on February 27, 2024

Manchester City suffer Jack Grealish injury blow in Luton Town victory

Manchester City winger Jack Grealish suffers an injury setback in Tuesday's 6-2 victory over Luton Town in the fifth round of the FA Cup.

Feb 28, 01:01

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Liverpool 4-1 Luton
Wednesday, February 21 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Manchester City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Bournemouth 0-1 Man City
Saturday, February 24 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.98%) and 1-3 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.6%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Manchester City
14.13% ( -1.14)	17.18% ( -0.18)	68.69% ( 1.32)

Both teams to score 59.65% (

-2.52)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.62% (

-1.77)

31.37% (

1.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.17% (

-2.12)

52.83% (

2.12)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.06% (

-2.62)

34.93% (

2.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.32% (

-2.86)

71.67% (

2.86)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.68% (

-0.18)

8.32% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71% (

-0.44)

28.99% (

0.44)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 14.13%

Manchester City 68.69%

Draw 17.18%

Luton Town	Draw	Manchester City
2-1 @ 4% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.18) Other @ 2.32% Total : 14.13%	1-1 @ 7.6% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.31) 0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.28) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.26% Total : 17.18%	1-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 8.98% ( 0.71) 1-3 @ 7.83% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 7.45% ( 0.53) 0-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.63) 1-4 @ 4.87% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 4.63% ( 0.29) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.3) 2-4 @ 2.56% ( -0.21) 1-5 @ 2.42% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 2.3% ( 0.13) 2-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.12) 1-6 @ 1% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.61% Total : 68.69%