Assuming the role of stalemate specialists at home, Montpellier are seldom outfought on their own patch - barring their midweek cup humiliation - and a Lyon side also nursing jellied legs will not have it all their own way at the Stade de la Mosson.
Making the net ripple on the road has been an issue for Les Gones all season long, but with Sage instilling a newfound sense of defensive discipline into his crop, a solitary strike may be enough for the visitors to continue their climb away from the drop zone, leapfrogging their out-of-sorts hosts in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 25.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.09) 
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