Major League Soccer

Jul 16, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Subaru Park

Philadelphia
2 - 1
NY City

Andres Martinez (23'), Donovan (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Jasson (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: Nashville 0-2 Philadelphia
Thursday, July 13 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: Columbus Crew 1-1 NY City
Sunday, July 9 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New York City FC

While the Union have been rather inconsistent since the beginning of June, we believe they will sort things out and find their form like we have seen them do many times in the past. Bakrar should help New York in front of the goal when he arrives, but they will need more than one new face to turn around their road woes this season.

How to watch

You can watch Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 66.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 13.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Philadelphia Union in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Philadelphia Union.

Result
Philadelphia Union	Draw	New York City FC
66.29% ( 0.56)	20.5% ( -0.28)	13.21% ( -0.28)

Both teams to score 45.18% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.05% (

0.53)

48.95% (

-0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.96% (

0.48)

71.03% (

-0.48)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.09% (

0.34)

13.91% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.66% (

0.66)

41.34% (

-0.66)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.48% (

-0.12)

47.51% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.12% (

-0.09)

82.87% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Philadelphia Union 66.27%

New York City FC 13.21%

Draw 20.5%

Philadelphia Union	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 13.03% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.85% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 66.27%	1-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.64% Total : 20.5%	0-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.85% Total : 13.21%