League One

League One | Gameweek 38

Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Fratton Park

Portsmouth
2 - 1
Burton Albion

Yengi (45+3' pen., 63')
Peart-Harris (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Brayford (80')
Helm (14'), Brayford (24'), Crocombe (34'), Carayol (83'), Sweeney (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions

Last Game: Blackpool 0-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burton Albion

All competitions

Last Game: Burton Albion 1-3 Peterborough
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Portsmouth 3-1 Burton Albion

Burton have proven to be a tough team to beat in recent away games, but we think that their four-game unbeaten away run will ultimately come to an end against a Portsmouth side that has recorded four consecutive home victories. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 64.99%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 14.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.

Result
Portsmouth	Draw	Burton Albion
64.99% ( 0.08)	20.42% ( -0.06)	14.58% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 49.01% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.25% (

0.2)

45.74% (

-0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.94% (

0.19)

68.06% (

-0.2)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.7% (

0.08)

13.29% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.88% (

0.18)

40.12% (

-0.18)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.52% (

0.09)

43.47% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.31% (

0.07)

79.69% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Portsmouth 64.98%

Burton Albion 14.58%

Draw 20.42%

Portsmouth	Draw	Burton Albion
2-0 @ 11.76% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 11.66% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.33% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 64.98%	1-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.85% Total : 20.42%	0-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.05% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0) Other @ 1.46% Total : 14.58%