Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 31

Apr 6, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
1 - 0
Lazio

Mancini (42')
De Rossi (22'), Mancini (55'), Celik (68'), Pellegrini (80'), Paredes (81'), Lukaku (90+3'), Lukaku (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Vecino (21'), Pedro (73'), Castellanos (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Derby della Capitale between Serie A rivals Roma and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lecce 0-0 Roma
Monday, April 1 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lazio

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Juventus 2-0 Lazio
Tuesday, April 2 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma have not won a Derby della Capitale since March 2022, but with both momentum and club icon Daniele De Rossi on their side, they can end that drought this weekend. Goal-shy Lazio are still a work in progress under Igor Tudor, who is trying to unpick two years of 'Sarri-ball'. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Lazio
57% ( 0.16)	22.81% ( -0.01)	20.19% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 52.6% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.3% (

-0.16)

46.7% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.04% (

-0.15)

68.96% (

0.15)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.85% (

16.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.41% (

45.59% (

-0)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.73% (

-0.25)

37.27% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.95% (

-0.25)

74.05% (

0.25)

Score Analysis

Roma 56.99%

Lazio 20.19%

Draw 22.81%

Roma	Draw	Lazio
1-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.74% 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.24% Total : 56.99%	1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.81%	0-1 @ 5.94% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.64% Total : 20.19%