Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 7, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Stozice

Slovenia
4 - 2
N. Ireland

Sporar (3', 56'), Evans (17' og.), Sesko (42')
Brekalo (90+5')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Price (7'), Evans (53')
Price (48'), Charles (57'), McCann (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Slovenia and Northern Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Slovenia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Monday, June 19 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	4	7	9
2	Kazakhstan	4	4	9
3	Denmark	4	2	7
4	Slovenia	4	1	7
5	Northern Ireland	4	-1	3
6	San Marino	4	-13	0

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: N. Ireland 0-1 Kazakhstan
Monday, June 19 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	4	7	9
2	Kazakhstan	4	4	9
3	Denmark	4	2	7
4	Slovenia	4	1	7
5	Northern Ireland	4	-1	3
6	San Marino	4	-13	0

We said: Slovenia 2-0 Northern Ireland

Having lost each of their last three matches without scoring, Northern Ireland look set to suffer another damaging defeat on Thursday, strengthening Slovenia's qualification hopes in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.

Result
Slovenia	Draw	Northern Ireland
43.49% ( 1.68)	26.53% ( -0.41)	29.98% ( -1.27)

Both teams to score 50.8% (

0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.21% (

1.15)

53.79% (

-1.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.74% (

0.96)

75.26% (

-0.96)

Slovenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.45% (

1.38)

24.55% (

-1.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.97% (

1.9)

59.03% (

-1.9)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.33% (

-0.31)

32.67% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.78% (

-0.36)

69.22% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Slovenia 43.49%

Northern Ireland 29.98%

Draw 26.52%

Slovenia	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 11.26% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.27) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.27) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.55% Total : 43.49%	1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.52%	0-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.59% Total : 29.98%