Championship

Championship | Gameweek 43

Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
3 - 2
Watford

Smallbone (1'), Adams (20'), Downes (90+9')
Fraser (74')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Porteous (34'), Kone (85')
Hoedt (40'), Cleverley (41'), Porteous (55'), Kayembe (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Southampton 2-1 Coventry
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Watford

All competitions

Last Game: Ipswich 0-0 Watford
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 2-1 Watford

This has all the makings of being a tight contest where Watford are able to frustrate their opponents, much like they did at Ipswich. Nevertheless, we feel Southampton will eventually make the breakthrough and fend off the Hornets' response in a hard-earned victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 16.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Watford
63.25% ( -0.34)	19.9% ( 0.17)	16.84% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 56.19% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.09% (

-0.51)

38.9% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.78% (

-0.53)

61.22% (

0.53)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.28% (

-0.25)

11.71% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.17% (

-0.52)

36.82% (

0.51)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.64% (

-0.12)

36.35% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.86% (

-0.11)

73.14% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Southampton 63.25%

Watford 16.84%

Draw 19.9%

Southampton	Draw	Watford
2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 7.08% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.05% Total : 63.25%	1-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.18% Total : 19.9%	1-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.42% Total : 16.84%