Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 11

Nov 11, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Stuttgart
2 - 1
Dortmund

Undav (42'), Guirassy (83' pen.)
Undav (15'), Karazor (59')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Fullkrug (36')
Kobel (10'), Adeyemi (15'), Sabitzer (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stuttgart

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Heidenheim 2-0 Stuttgart
Sunday, November 5 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 2-0 Newcastle
Tuesday, November 7 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

Stuttgart's surprisingly excellent start to the season was always likely to come to an end as soon as Guirassy was ruled out through injury for a period of time, and if he is unable to return on Saturday, we expect Dortmund to return to winning ways in the Bundesliga. Terzic's side showed excellent resolve to bounce back from their humiliation in Der Klassiker by beating Newcastle in the Champions League in midweek, and they will know that they cannot afford to drop any more unnecessary points if they are to have any realistic hopes of catching Leverkusen and Bayern at the summit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.53%) and 1-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stuttgart in this match.

Result
Stuttgart	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
44.83% ( -1.41)	21.71% ( 0.33)	33.46% ( 1.09)

Both teams to score 69.44% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.85% (

-1.21)

30.14% (

1.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.63% (

-1.47)

51.37% (

1.47)

Stuttgart Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.69% (

-0.93)

14.31% (

0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.87% (

-1.85)

42.12% (

1.85)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.04% (

-0.04)

18.96% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.51% (

-0.07)

50.49% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Stuttgart 44.83%

Borussia Dortmund 33.46%

Draw 21.71%

Stuttgart	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.53% ( -0.19) 1-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 3.32% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.11) 4-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.09) 5-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.64% Total : 44.83%	1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.71%	1-2 @ 7.29% ( 0.24) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.3) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.49% Total : 33.46%