Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 13, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Stadium

China
0 - 0
Tajikistan

Wang (29')

Umarbaev (74'), Samiev (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Asian Cup clash between China and Tajikistan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

China

All competitions

Last Game: China 1-2 Hong Kong
Monday, January 1 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	1	3	3
2	China	0	0	0
3	Tajikistan	0	0	0
4	Lebanon	1	-3	0

Tajikistan

All competitions

Last Game: Hong Kong 1-2 Tajikistan
Thursday, January 4 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Qatar	1	3	3
2	China	0	0	0
3	Tajikistan	0	0	0
4	Lebanon	1	-3	0

The current FIFA rankings suggest this will be a mismatch, but Tajikistan have a well-balanced side who are in great form, while overall boasting some decent quality in the attacking third, as seen in their 6-1 shellacking of Pakistan last November. China, meanwhile, are entering this competition in poor form, with Lei having to shoulder the scoring load, and we believe they could get frustrated by this young, upstart Tajiki squad. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for China had a probability of 21.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.23%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a China win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
China	Draw	Tajikistan
21.56% ( -0.07)	24.72% ( -0.02)	53.71% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 48.76% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.2% (

-0)

52.8% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.57% (

-0)

74.42%

China Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.66% (

-0.08)

39.33% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.96% (

-0.07)

76.03% (

0.07)

Tajikistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.38% (

0.03)

19.61% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.44% (

0.06)

51.56% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

China 21.56%

Tajikistan 53.7%

Draw 24.72%

China	Draw	Tajikistan
1-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.41% Total : 21.56%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.71% 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.83% Total : 24.72%	0-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 10.23% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.55% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.56% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.11% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.83% Total : 53.7%