Asian Cup

Asian Cup | Group Stage

Jan 23, 2024 at 3pm UK

Education City Stadium

Iran
2 - 1
UAE

Taremi (26', 65')
Moharrami (41'), Kanani (62')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Alghassani (90+3')
Alzaabi (54'), Ibrahim (72')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Asian Cup clash between Iran and United Arab Emirates, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Hong Kong 0-1 Iran
Friday, January 19 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iran	2	4	6
2	United Arab Emirates	2	2	4
3	Palestine	2	-3	1
4	Hong Kong	0	0	0

United Arab Emirates

All competitions

Asian Cup

Last Game: Palestine 1-1 UAE
Thursday, January 18 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Iran	2	4	6
2	United Arab Emirates	2	2	4
3	Palestine	2	-3	1
4	Hong Kong	0	0	0

We said: Iran 1-0 United Arab Emirates

Iran have won their last five meetings with the United Arab Emirates and did not concede a single goal in any of those encounters. Seeing as this is a match for first place and avoiding the host nation next, we expect a sense of urgency from each, but with their most experienced defender suspended, the UAE may have a few more holes in their backline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 73.24%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for United Arab Emirates had a probability of 9.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.49%) and 3-0 (10.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a United Arab Emirates win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Iran	Draw	United Arab Emirates
73.24% ( -0.06)	17.31% ( 0.08)	9.44% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 42.85% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.91% (

-0.41)

45.09% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.57% (

-0.39)

67.43% (

0.39)

Iran Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.18% (

-0.12)

10.82% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.12% (

-0.28)

34.88% (

0.28)

United Arab Emirates Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.05% (

-0.31)

51.95% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.03% (

-0.21)

85.97% (

0.21)

Score Analysis

Iran 73.22%

United Arab Emirates 9.44%

Draw 17.31%

Iran	Draw	United Arab Emirates
2-0 @ 13.89% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 12.49% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 10.3% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.75% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 73.22%	1-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.53% Total : 17.31%	0-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.21% ( -0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 9.44%