[monks data]

Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 10

May 20, 2020 at 5pm UK

Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Dinamo Brest
1 - 3
BATE

Milevskiy (40')
Kislyak (4'), Noyok (36'), Pavlovets (47'), Savitskiy (54'), Laptev (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Dragun (31'), Nekhajchik (73'), Milic (80')
Filipenko (38'), Skavysh (55')

Preview: Dinamo Brest vs. BATE Borisov - predictions, form guides, head-to-head record

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter | 18 May 2020

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Vysheyshaya Liga clash between Dinamo Brest and BATE Borisov, including predictions, form guides and head-to-heads.

Belarusian Premier League leaders BATE Borisov will face off against current champions Dinamo Brest on Wednesday evening, four days before the two sides are due to meet in the Belarusian Cup final.

BATE triumphed in a top-of-the-table clash against Slutsk last weekend, while Brest fell to defeat against a high-flying Energetik-BGU side.

Match preview

Dinamo Brest and Isloch in the Belarusian Premier League on April 12, 2020 © Reuters

Having recorded two victories on the bounce prior to their meeting with Energetik, Brest fans would have been forgiven for feeling optimistic about their side's fortunes as the season gathers pace.

However, Sergey Kovalchuk was forced to witness his team succumb to their fourth defeat in six matches against Energetik last time out, a result which leaves them seventh in the table after nine matches.

There is little time for Brest to dwell on that defeat, however, as Kovalchuk's men must prepare for their first of two consecutive matches against BATE this week.

Nevertheless, there is every reason for the Brest faithful to be encouraged by their side's home form heading into the tie; Kovalchuk's side have only lost twice in their last 13 matches in front of their own fans.

A fifth victory of the season for Brest would see them rise above Shakhtyor Soligorsk and Isloch into fifth before the two sides take to the pitch against Belshina and Energetik respectively later this week.

In contrast, BATE have stormed to the summit of the Belarusian Premier League and maintained their position in convincing fashion over Slutsk last weekend.

The two clubs occupied first and second heading into the fixture, before goals from Nemanja Milic, Ihar Stasevich and Pavel Nyakhaychyk helped BATE to a 3-0 victory over their fellow high-flyers.

Last season was the first time since 2005 that Kirill Alshevsky's side failed to lift the Vysheyshaya Liga title, and the 15-time champions look as determined as ever to regain their crown in the 2020 campaign.

BATE have put together a five-game winning streak across all competitions and have not suffered defeat in the Belarusian top flight since the second gameweek of the season.

Furthermore, Alshevsky's side have netted a whopping 19 times in the league thus far, including 11 in their last three outings.

BATE will have the chance to put some breathing space between themselves, Energetik and Torpedo-BelAZ with a win on Wednesday, as the second and third-placed sides currently sit just one point behind the leaders at this stage.

Dinamo Brest Vysheyshaya Liga form: WLLWWL
Dinamo Brest form (all competitions): LLLWWL

BATE Borisov Vysheyshaya Liga form: WDWWWW
BATE Borisov form (all competitions): DWWWWW

Head To Head

BATE boast an incredibly strong record over Brest since 1996, with the 15-time champions recording 41 wins from their 58 meetings in all competitions compared to Brest's 11.

However, Brest's recent form against BATE is actually pretty strong - as the current champions have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five matches against Alshevsky's men.

Ahead of their Belarusian Cup final this weekend, Brest triumphed over BATE in the 2017-18 competition, with Nyakhaychyk scoring an 89th-minute winner for Brest against his current side.

We say: Dinamo Brest 1-2 BATE Borisov

Wednesday's clash promises to be a fascinating tie between two teams gunning for glory in Belarus's premier competitions. Both sides will no doubt have one eye on Sunday's cup final, but we expect BATE to continue their impressive league form and take all three points in the opening fixture of gameweek 10.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Dinamo Brest had a probability of 34.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Dinamo Brest win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.