Championship

Championship | Gameweek 17

Oct 23, 2022 at 12pm UK

Vicarage Road

Watford
4 - 0
Luton

Davis (3'), Troost-Ekong (45'), Pedro (57'), Sarr (79')
Davis (29'), Troost-Ekong (45+1'), Sema (67')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Bradley (18'), Doughty (51'), Campbell (59'), Cornick (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Watford and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions

Last Game: Millwall 3-0 Watford
Wednesday, October 19 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Norwich 0-1 Luton
Tuesday, October 18 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Watford 2-1 Luton Town

Given that Luton are arguably the form team in the division, this feels like a difficult match to call. However, Watford tend to be a far better outfit in front of their own supporters, leading us to predict an entertaining victory for the Hornets. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Watford had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.

Result
Watford	Draw	Luton Town
33.67% ( 0.17)	27.48% ( -0.09)	38.85% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 49.17% (

0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.56% (

0.37)

56.45% (

-0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.55% (

0.3)

77.45% (

-0.3)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.54% (

0.3)

31.46% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.16% (

0.35)

67.84% (

-0.34)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.74% (

0.13)

28.26% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.03% (

0.17)

63.97% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Watford 33.67%

Luton Town 38.85%

Draw 27.47%

Watford	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.92% Total : 33.67%	1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47%	0-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.85%