Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2024 at 3am UK

Estadio Monumental

Universitario
2 - 1
LDU Quito

Rivera (50', 70')
Saravia (13'), Portocarrero (66'), Cabanillas (83')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Quinonez (29')
Angulo (20'), Gonzalez (86')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Universitario and LDU Quito.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universitario

Last Game: Universitario 1-2 Corinthians
Wednesday, July 19 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

LDU Quito

Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 LDU Quito
Friday, March 1 at 12.30am in CONMEBOL Recopa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 18.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universitario would win this match.

Result
Universitario	Draw	LDU Quito
57.3% ( -0.52)	24.62% ( 0.05)	18.08% ( 0.47)

Both teams to score 43.98% (

0.64)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.58% (

0.42)

56.42% (

-0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.57% (

0.34)

77.43% (

-0.34)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.39% (

-0.04)

19.61% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.44% (

-0.06)

51.56% (

0.07)

LDU Quito Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.71% (

0.82)

45.29% (

-0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.83% (

0.64)

81.16% (

-0.64)

Score Analysis

Universitario 57.3%

LDU Quito 18.08%

Draw 24.61%

Universitario	Draw	LDU Quito
1-0 @ 14.47% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 11.78% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.61% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.56% Total : 57.3%	1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.58% Total : 24.61%	0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.55% Total : 18.08%