Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

May 26, 2023 at 1am UK

Estudiantes
1 - 5
Palestino

Arenas (33')
Penilla (21'), Arenas (65'), Gomez (81')
Penilla (45+4')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Carrasco (24' pen., 69'), Barticciotto (26'), Farias (73'), Doldan (82' og.)
Barticciotto (51')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Estudiantes Merida and Palestino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes Merida

Last Game: Fortaleza 6-1 Estudiantes
Friday, May 5 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Palestino

Last Game: Palestino 0-0 San Lorenzo
Wednesday, May 3 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes Merida win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Palestino had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes Merida win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Palestino win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.

Result
Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Palestino
40.86% ( 0.15)	26.49% ( -0.03)	32.65% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 51.98% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.23% (

0.1)

52.76% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.6% (

0.08)

74.39% (

-0.08)

Estudiantes Merida Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.56% (

0.12)

25.44% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.73% (

0.17)

60.26% (

-0.17)

Palestino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.71% (

-0.04)

30.28% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.54% (

-0.04)

66.45% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Estudiantes Merida 40.85%

Palestino 32.65%

Draw 26.48%

Estudiantes Merida	Draw	Palestino
1-0 @ 10.54% 2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.42% Total : 40.85%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.48%	0-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 32.65%