Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 5, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giovanni Zini

Cremonese
0 - 2
Fiorentina

(Fiorentina win 2-0 on aggregate)

Aiwu (73')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Cabral (20'), Gonzalez (75' pen.)
Martinez (38')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Cremonese and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cremonese

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Cremonese 1-3 Atalanta
Saturday, April 1 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Inter Milan 0-1 Fiorentina
Saturday, April 1 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Cremonese 1-2 Fiorentina

With their confidence sapped still further by a 17th Serie A defeat of the season, Cremonese may find it hard to resist Italy's most in-form side on Wednesday. Fiorentina's surge since losing back-to-back league games in February has been nothing short of spectacular, and they can set themselves up with a first-leg lead ahead of the return in Florence later this month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 55.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Cremonese had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Cremonese win it was 2-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Cremonese	Draw	Fiorentina
21.8% ( -0.51)	22.56% ( -0.21)	55.64% ( 0.72)

Both teams to score 55.87% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.47% (

0.31)

43.52% (

-0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.08% (

0.31)

65.92% (

-0.31)

Cremonese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.12% (

-0.3)

33.88% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.45% (

-0.33)

70.55% (

0.33)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.49% (

0.35)

15.5% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.6% (

0.65)

44.39% (

-0.66)

Score Analysis

Cremonese 21.8%

Fiorentina 55.64%

Draw 22.55%

Cremonese	Draw	Fiorentina
2-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.19% Total : 21.8%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.55%	1-2 @ 9.88% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.13% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 6.14% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 5.67% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.86% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 2.64% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.07% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 0.99% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.61% Total : 55.64%